Analyze that supply and demand may lead to further decline in cotton prices

Early morning news, December 2, Beijing time, analysts said that record cotton production and declining consumption will push cotton stocks to the highest level since 2005, further pushing down the price of cotton. ** is already the worst performing product this year.

According to estimates made by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, in the 12 months to July next year, cotton production will increase by 7.5% to 1.2389 billion bales (480 pounds per pack, 123.9 million bales equivalent to 27 million tonnes). The demand will drop to 1.1427 billion bales (about 25 million tons), the lowest level in three years.

According to a Bloomberg survey, the 12 analysts surveyed expected that the price of cotton ** on the ICE Futures U.S. Exchange in New York may fall by 15% from the current level of 90.01 per pound by the end of next year. The fraction (about US$1.98 per kg) fell to 77 cents per pound (about US$1.70 per kg). According to data released by the US Commodity Trade Commission (CFTC), speculators in the US ** market have been bullish on the cotton buoys for the lowest level in two and a half years.

James Dailey, asset management manager of Pennsylvania financial management company TEAM Financial Management, said: "This is a double blow. Cotton is facing the worst case scenario for commodities, that is, the actual The production process coupled with weak demand performance."

Since March hitting a record high of 2.197 pounds per pound (about US$4.84 per kilogram), cotton prices have fallen by 58% because investors speculated that prices at that time would lead to limited demand, and at the same time Volume growth. Cotton production from countries such as Australia, China and India not only offsets the decline in US production, but also exceeds. The reason for the decline in U.S. cotton production is that the country has suffered the worst crop weather conditions since the dust storm of the 1930s.

According to the expectations of the International Monetary Union (IMF), the economic growth rate from Europe to China and even the Middle East will slow down next year, which may limit the consumption of commodities. Manufacturers of clothes, including Levi Strauss, have begun to cut prices in order to stimulate demand growth. In this year's deal, cotton prices have fallen by 36%, the worst performance among the 24 commodities tracked by the Standard & Poor's GSCI, which rose by 4% over the same period.

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