Hongyuan **: The trend of slight decline in lint prices will continue

Point 1. Price Express: Domestic lint: 129 21569 (-14) yuan / ton; 229 20698 (-73) yuan / ton; 328 19316 (-52) yuan / ton; 428 18452 (-37) yuan / ton. Domestic textiles: polyester staple fiber 11950 (-150) yuan / ton; viscose staple fiber 17890 (-200) yuan / ton; C32S price 26870 (-30) yuan / ton.

2. Price structure: The internal and external price difference CCindex328-FCindexM is 593 (-8) yuan / ton; the current price difference (CF1201-CNCottonB) is 684 (+107) yuan / ton; CF1205-CF1201 is 375 (+65) yuan / ton; yarn cotton spread The C32S-CottonB was 7554 (+22) yuan/ton; the cotton/cotton spread was 7366 (+98) yuan/ton.

3. Domestic spot: At present, auction delivery has become the most important way. In the latter stage of seed cotton, most of the cotton farmers started picking with dew, and less than 10% of seed cotton.

4. S&P Express: On November 4th, China National Reserve Cotton Management Corporation planned to collect and store 66,600 tons of cotton in 2011, with an actual turnover of 32,850 tons and a transaction rate of 49.3%. Among them, the mainland plans to collect 27,000 tons of storage, the actual turnover of 10410 tons, the turnover rate of 38.6%. Xinjiang Autonomous Region plans to collect 39,600 tons of storage, with an actual turnover of 22,440 tons and a turnover rate of 56.7%. As of November 4, the cumulative transaction volume of cotton purchases and storages for the current year was 250,880 tons, of which 69,240 tons were traded in the Mainland and 181,640 tons were sold in Xinjiang.

5. ICE**: On the 4th of November, the debt crisis in Europe still caused investors to feel anxious, which completely offset the impact of the decline in the unemployment rate in the United States in October. The US stock market fell and the commodity market was mixed. The ICE** investors waited for more sentiment, and ended up slightly with the help of a small amount of speculative buying, but did not break through the recent shock range.

summary:

It is very difficult for the cotton market to have unexpected themes. The slight decline in lint prices is likely to continue. The storage is the “straw recently”, but it will take time before the effect of the city’s holdings is apparent. We make the following judgments about the spot market and the ** market in the next two weeks. For the CF1205 contract, 20700 and 21,000 yuan/ton are two significant pressure levels. 20000 yuan / ton is still an important support in the near future. Shock market, flexible operation.

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